The life of a gambler has its ups and downs. Two weeks ago was an up. 11-3 on the Football pool... 100% against the number for the week (and a little better than 80% for the season)... It was the salad days folks. But gambling is a long season. You get hot... but you also get cold. Weeks happen when you seem to be perpetually on the wrong side of the play, zigging when you have been zagging.
Last week was one of those weeks for you're truly, going 5-9 in the Pool Picks for the week and 1-2 (2-3 if you include my bonus picks). In short, a big fat loser for your boy this past weekend. But I have spent my week regrouping... studying... trying to warm myself back up. A cold snap every now and again never hurt anyone, as long as they are just every now and again. Rome didn't fall in a day... it took two or three in a row to make it happen.
Week Six Pool Picks
Texans @ Bengals - Bengals
Lions @ Packers - Packers
Rams @ Jaguars - Jaguars
Ravens @ Vikings - Vikings
Giants @ Saints - Saints
Browns @ Steelers - Steelers
Panthers @ Buccaneers - Buccaneers
Chiefs @ Redskins - Chiefs
Eagles @ Raiders - Eagles
Cardinals @ Seahawks - Cardinals
Titans @ Patriots - Patriots
Bills @ Jets - Jets
Bears @ Falcons - Falcons
Broncos @ Chargers - Broncos
Hooted a Greek's Stone Cold Locks
I know folks that I have railed upon you that there are no such things as "sure things" in sports betting. But every now and then, there is something pretty damn close.
I have noticed that this season, the bookmakers are throwing us an awful lot of double digit odds when the better teams in the NFL are playing some of the dogs of the league. And boy oh boy, are there some fucking dogs...
The Rams and the Bucs are without a doubt rebuilding and manage to do the little things teams have to do to win games totally wrong, causing them to lose games constantly (and lose big, I might add, unless they are playing the Redskins, but you should already know that the Redskins never ever cover...). And then you have the Raiders... Oh god fucking love the god damned Raiders.
As of this moment I am proclaiming the Raiders as a stone cold lock to lose and lose big every week this season. They are horrific and to keep bring you, my readers, with reasons as to why I think whoever they are playing is going to cover when we all know that it is for no other reason that they are just a horrible football team. So until further notice, lay against the Raiders NO MATTER WHAT THE NUMBER. There is no way the Raiders can cover, end of story.
As for the big numbers against the other dregs of the league (Bucs, Rams, Browns, Titans, Cheifs), the double digit point spreads are hitting at around 85%, so truthfully there is some value to be had there. So this week, we are not going to shy away from the number. We are going to take some risks...
St Louis Rams (± 41 ½) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-10)
The Rams have no prayer and get their doors blown off by whoever they play. This is a no brainer and just the kind of game a gambler needs to get back to winning ways. Take the Jags and the points.
New England Patriots (-9) @ Tennessee Titans (±43)
There comes a point in time were a team is no longer the best 0-5 team in the league and we all just have to accept that teams are what they are. Now say it with me... "The Titans are 0-5". Just a year after being a dominant force in the AFC, the Titans look sluggish and stale. Kerry Collins can't complete a pass. Defense can't stop anyone. Whispers of Vince young seeing the field and Jeff Fisher being replaced rumors are starting to spread around.
The Pats, on the other hand, may not be the Pats of two years ago, but they still are pretty fucking good.
While we look for the Titans to eventually get their shit back together and back to winning ways, we do not foresee this week being the one that starts that tide rolling. Take the Pats, laying the 9.
Detroit Lions (+13 ½) @ Green Bay Packers (±48)
The Lions are not as horrific as they were last season. Or at least they are not as bad as last year when Matt Stafford is under center. And while they do not look too horrific with Dante Culpepper running the offense, they still ain't what they should be. And with Calvin Johnson being questionable to play as well on Sunday, the chances of the Lions keeping up with the Green Bay Packers (at home I might add, where they still are pretty fucking good) are slim. Lay the 13 ½ with the Packers, but keep an eye on this one... if that number creeks up above 13 and change, take the Lions. More than a two touchdowns tip this to the Lions favor (against the number anyways...)
New York Giants (+3 ½) @ New Orleans Saints (±47 ½)
This is the game of the week and likely to get inflated by public money so keep an eye on this one as it might change at a moments notice. The Giants have looked like world beaters this season, slapping around the dregs of the league (being Rams, Raiders, Redskins, Buccaneers) and coming out on top of a half assing Dallas Cowboys. That being said, they did beat the snot out of those horrible teams (and did what they had to in order to get past the not so horrible ones). But the Saints are not horrible. Hell, they are not even mediocre. They are flat out good. Breez has been dead on this season, spreading the ball around with reckless abandon. Saints defense is also very strong at home, looking to keep Eli jittery all day Sunday.
Take the Saints and lay the 3 ½.
Kansas City Chiefs (+6 ½) @ Washington Redskins (±37 ½)
Ugh. Two dogs going at it. I pity those of you reading this in either the Washing DC or Kansas City TV viewing territories that are going to be forced to sit through that garbage.
That being said, the Redskins favored by a touchdown is just laughable. Redskins couldn't beat a high school team by a touchdown. Take the Chiefs laying points. While the Skins might win this game, there is no way it is by more than a field goal.